EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, AUD: Forecast for next week – Morgan Stanley
Euro: Euro is still a risk. Neutral.
… We like tactical shorts in EUR / EM (Emerging market currencies), although we would be selective for EM currencies. EURUSD may also go down. In the medium term, we also expect that the euro will be under pressure due to the differences in monetary policy between Europe and the rest of the world.
JPY: The temporary pullback. Neutral
JPY may see some temporary setbacks … .Opaseniya about easing the Bank of Japan are unfounded, in our opinion, but nevertheless it can give weak JPY in the near future. We will follow the next week for a meeting BoJ and wait for any sign that the central bank becomes more peaceful.
GBP: observation BoE. Downtrend.
We like to sell GBP, we believe that the UK economy is starting to weaken … ..We are seeing PMI and BoE rate decision this week.
CAD: Look for oil prices. Downtrend.
Our mid-term of Long USDCAD still in the game, but this week should oil prices will quicken, then CAD should benefit. Instead, we prefer on Long AUDCAD ….
AUD: Time for assistance. Downtrend.
Stronger data out of China should offer some short-term support AUD. In addition, while the housing market in Australia is still presents a danger, the prospect of a financial incentive to offer support for both the economy and the currency, at least in the near future … We will closely monitor the forthcoming decision of the RBA “.
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