Russian stock market: results of week
This week on the Russian stock exchanges observed optimism, many stocks have come to important resistance levels. For the last day the RTS index rose by 2.3% on a day-long rise in oil prices and the global stock markets. Today, the stock market opened lower on the MICEX index by 1% against the deterioration of sentiment in the oil market and in the technical korrektsiyai after several days of growth. On Saturday and Monday, the Russian market will be open, and on Tuesday the trades are conducted in accordance with the holiday work schedule of the Moscow stock exchange.
“The Russian market spent most of the week to sufficiently smooth and steady increase. Such an unusual stable and positive trend formed exclusively under the influence of an extremely favorable external background “, – said Vitaly Manzhos, senior analyst at the Bank of” Education “. The most significant external factor acted as a marked improvement in sentiment in the oil market and the growth of global indices. Futures for Brent crude in the last few days have stabilized in a wide enough range of $ 32- $ 36. Thus, they are held above the recent mid-term minimum ($ 30).
“Positives added and published minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve. The position of the Federal Reserve monetary policy softened noticeably – considered the option of suspension of the process raise interest rates “, – said Roman Tkachuk, senior analyst at IC” Okay Broker “.
For Monday to Thursday, the MICEX index rose by 5% and exceeded 1,800 points. This is the upper limit of the outset of the 1300 -1800, in which the Russian market is trading for more than five years.
“Closer to the weekend the appetite of investors for risky assets fell, leading to a negative opening on Friday the MICEX. It is this decline is only a small correction after a long rally? Or is it mainly the usual reaction to a wave of selling of oil futures? Anyway, the short-term MICEX index to be overbought correction; We expect negative opening and working on Saturday before the long weekend. Despite the fact that the medium-term indicators point to positive growth, fluctuations in oil prices worried about Russian investor is not less than colleagues on Wall Street, at the first face because of them, inflation, deflation and the second “, – stated in the review of VTB24.
Tomorrow, when the Russian market will be traded in splendid isolation, roll back down can be continued, says Roman Tkachuk. “Probably the goal – area of 1780 points. This is supported by “a factor of holidays.” Part of investors in this period will be far from the POS terminals and prefer to take profits on long positions before the end of the week. However, the Moscow Stock Exchange will open on January 20 and 22 but active trading in, we do not expect these days. After the holidays, we can not rule out the continuation of the domestic market growth. Much will depend on the dynamics of oil prices, which is now forecast is quite difficult due to political factors, “- said the expert.
“The MICEX index again slid under the important level of 1800 points round, which creates conditions for further sales – says Vitaly Manzhos. – As an immediate technical goal for the expected fall MICEX index area protrudes 1750-1770 items. Achieving this range will largely depend on the dynamics of foreign markets, movements in oil futures and geopolitical component. It is possible that next week we will see a further escalation of the armed conflict in Syria. “
According to Vitaly Manzhosov, explicit support of the local market on the part of the external background also can not continue indefinitely. Today there is a whole neutral dynamics of futures on US stock indices and major European markets.
“As far as domestic investment ideas, the main theme remains idle prompt decision regarding the continuation of the process of privatization of Russian companies with state participation. Therefore, likely speculative movements in the shares of Rosneft, Bashneft and diamond mining company Alrosa. It is obvious that we will see fluctuations in the value of shares of exporters, which will move after jumps of the currency pair USD / RUB », – predicts senior analyst at the Bank’s” Education “.
According to Emerging Portfolio Fund Research (EPFR), funds that invest only in shares of the Russian Federation, from 11 to 17 February again showed a net cash inflow of $ 4.9 million against the influx of $ 4.9 million the previous week.
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