Policy brief exchange market
The ruble is again under pressure amid falling oil prices. Partially support is provided by the sale of foreign exchange earnings by exporters in anticipation of the payment of taxes, however, given the very comfortable situation in the money market can hardly be expected that this support will be essential. A key for RUB is the situation in the oil market, which is again changed and the trajectory of motion is reduced by more than 5% after the day before reaching marks in $ 35 for Brent. The situation on the oil market is complicating Iran’s position that logically would like to get closer to dosanktsionnym production volumes. Thus These “swing” will continue to keep the voltage on the markets. From macroeconomic events up to the end of the week it is worth paying attention to US data (orders for durable goods, labor market data, GDP) is expected, the final figures will support the USD on Forex. Ruble seen in the range of 75-79 together with dollar.
Short-term ruble rates on hold despite the approaching peak of tax payments. The market is more than comfortable, yet before the week is possible restrained growth rates. Medium-term rates have been relatively stable at about 12%.
Denis Davydov, an analyst at Nordea Bank
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