EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF, CAD, AUD, NZD: Weekly Forecast – Morgan Stanley
EUR: Euro trading range. Neutral. “Dovish” Yellen gave a speech support for the euro, pushing EURUSD to 1.14. We expect the EURUSD could trade as 1.16 / 1.17 … In general, we do not see the weakness of the euro catalysts in the short term and expect that it will trade in a range near these levels.
JPY: Tactically bearish.
We remain tactically bearish on the JPY for two reasons. Firstly, the new fiscal year begins this week, and we anticipate that Japanese investors will be in pursuit of profit … Second, the “dovish” Fed and stabilizing China’s data provide risk support in the near future, reducing demand for safe assets such as the JPY. In such circumstances, we are for sale JPY, as well as the ZAR, AUD and MXN.
GBP: Sale on growth. Bearish.
… We are looking for opportunities to sell GBP on growth and expect volatility to remain high.
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CHF: Driven by the weakness of USD. Neutral.
The pair was likely to fall this week. This is due to the general weakness of the dollar. This weakness may also drive the pair EURUSD above 1.15, which is probably a couple of pobudet eurchf move higher ….
We believe that strong data on unemployment, rising oil prices and a favorable fiscal policy will keep rates on hold BOC and it will be an incentive for CAD … We like to buy the CAD against the USD.
AUD: Temporal stability. Neutral
The best data for AUD and rising iron ore prices gave support to the AUD during the last few weeks … .we expect the AUDUSD to remain around these levels. The main risk is the RBA meeting next week … we remain neutral on AUD.
NZD: New mode. Neutral.
NZD has entered a new regime after the break … 0.69 NZD in the short term may have more potential for growth … But we remain cautious as the RBNZ is likely to be uncomfortable with the situation NZD …
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